Fortune and fantasy on Africa's oil frontier
President Deby at pipeline opening ceremony
Happier days…
I haven’t posted anything in a while, as I’m in the midst of editing. I’ll post more material soon. In the meantime, here’s some news from the recent IMF staff mission to Chad (March 4-17):
“Economic activity remained sluggish in 2009, but inflation increased further, owing to food prices. Low rainfall, and therefore agricultural output, plus the trend decline in oil production led to a contraction in real GDP of about 2 percent. The bad harvest could imply food shortage for up to 2 million people (18 percent of the population). The need for additional food is estimated at between 80,000 to 100,000 metric tons, for which the government has requested external assistance.
“The global financial crisis affected Chad mainly through the ensuing decline in oil prices. The fiscal position deteriorated sharply in 2009 to a deficit of about 20 percent of non-oil GDP as the government maintained spending levels in the face of a fall-off in oil revenues by almost depleting its oil savings and borrowing from the central bank…Overspending on security and investment in 2009 absorbed an important part of the resources that had been lined up to finance the 2010 budget.”
Hardly looks good. Chad remains desperately poor, 18% of the population risks going hungry and the government can’t pay its bills. All this despite the benefits that oil brought to the country.
Money in, money out. I think this is what economists’ call the “resource curse”, you know, what wasn’t going to happen this time…
Christiane Badgley has been producing and editing documentary films for the past twenty years, with much of her work focused on the U.S. criminal justice system and post-colonial African politics and history.
It will get MUCH worse before it gets better in Chad. The Chad/Cameroon Pipeline (CCP)has been operating in a legal void for 7 years and is expected to coninue in the same state for another 30 years. President Deby is allowed to STEAL the Oil revenues to propup his government and the people get poorer.The World Bank has done a runner and NOBODY gives a damn.
This is what many non-neoclassical economists more properly would call corporate-led corruption and instability that looks suspiciously like planned failure.